Following an epic fail from pseudonymous analyst, PlanB, Bitcoin was trading at $50,000 on December 25th, avoiding an unwelcome Christmas Day surprise for BTC bulls.
PlanB Model Fails Bitcoin
PlanB’s model failed many crypto investors who must be looking at their portfolios with disappointment, as the pseudonymous analyst’s $100,000 Bitcoin prediction did not come true on December 25.
BTC/USD maintained $50,000 support into the weekend, according to TradingView data, after ranging following local highs above $51,500.
As the Christmas season began, the pair remained placid, with thinner liquidity yet to manifest itself in the form of violent price movements.
With most traders and analysts taking a break from trading and analysis, the $1 trillion market cap valuation level at $53,000 remained the closest upside objective.
BTC trading at $50k. Souce: TradingView
PlanB made a point of separating his floor model from the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model. The floor model failed in November and December, according to the analyst, as it did not reach the minimum expected costs of $98,000 and $135,000, respectively.
PlanB had previously stated that if Bitcoin did not reach $100k in December, his stock-to-flow model would be invalidated, but he now appears to be changing his mind. Instead, PlanB stated in a recent tweet,
Let me be clear:
1) Nov98K & Dec135K miss = FLOOR MODEL FAIL
2) Dec100K miss: I have said earlier that if BTC<$100K Dec2021, then S2F is “off the rails” “invalidated” “dead”. Tbh that was an ill attempt to clarify “$100K average this cycle” & regression analysis. S2F MODEL INTACT pic.twitter.com/LRdfLinTm4
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 24, 2021
PlanB, reportedly stated this summer that if the Bitcoin price did not reach $100,000 in December, he would consider S2F useless.
Related article | Plan B: The Next 6 Months Will Make Or Break Famed Bitcoin Model
Is Next Year PlanB’s Plan B
Following criticism over Twitter statements he claims were misinterpreted, PlanB noted that Bitcoin would continue to follow his model’s projections.
Investors and experts are split. While many investors are debating if the floor model failure marks the end of S2F, Willy Woo, a Bitcoin on-chain analyst, has a different perspective. PlanB’s opinion did not define S2F, according to Woo, because models existed independently of their designers. He wrote on Twitter,
“A model is a model. We can look back on it years from now and know whether it gets invalidated. Certainly not from some arbitrary line in the sand, even if it’s from the creator.”
While a prediction from the recently invalidated floor model of $135,000 this month proved to be unduly optimistic, that figure as an average price for this half cycle remains in play. PlanB has previously stated that models do not have to be perfect in order to work.