Data shows the Bitcoin supply in profit has continued its decline, but the metric has still not reached levels as low as the previous bear market bottoms.
Around 50% Of The Bitcoin Supply Is In Profit At The Moment
According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the current profitability levels in the BTC market are still above the 40%-42% values that were observed during historical bottoms.
The “percent supply in profit” is an indicator that measures the total percentage of the Bitcoin supply that’s currently holding some unrealized profit.
The metric works by checking the on-chain history of each coin in the circulating supply to see what price it was last moved at. If for any coin this previous price was less than the current BTC value, then that particular coin is in some profit at the moment, and the indicator accounts for it.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average Bitcoin percent supply in profit since the January of 2014:
The 7-day MA value of the metric seems to have been declining in recent days | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 41, 2022
As you can see in the above graph, the historical zones of the Bitcoin percent supply in profit for previous bear markets are highlighted.
It looks like whenever the metric has sunk below the 50% mark, the price of the crypto has observed cyclical lows.
More specifically, the indicator’s value was round 40%-41% in the 2014-15 bear, while it was 41%-42% during the 2018-19 bear.
The COVID crash saw the profit in supply reaching a 47% mark, but since the event wasn’t part of a normal cycle, the relatively higher level during this low may not be as relevant.
In the current 2021-22 bear market, the indicator has been declining, but has only made a slight touch of the historical bottom zone so far as its value is around 50% currently.
If the 40% to 42% supply in profit target for the cyclical low from the previous bear markets holds this time as well, then Bitcoin’s current profitability is still around 10% higher.
This would suggest that the crypto may have to go through another flush of unrealized profits before the sellers are exhausted and the bear bottom is in.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $18.9k, down 6% in the last week. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 12% in value.
Looks like the price of the coin has been slowly heading downhill since a few days ago | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Natarajan sethuramalingam on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com